Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles
- ,
- Kaare Græsbøll,
- Lasse Engbo Christiansen,
- Sune Lehmann
- Technical University of Denmark
Research Output:
Journal Article or Conference Article in Journal
Comment/debate
Peer-reviewPublication Information
Output type
Research Output:
Journal Article or Conference Article in Journal
Comment/debate
Peer-reviewOriginal language
EnglishPages from-to (Number of pages)
Pages 5-8 (3 pages)Journal (Volume, Issue Number)
Nature Physics (Volume 17)Publication milestones
- Published - 08/12/2020
Publication status
Published - 08/12/2020
Publication IDs
- ORCID: /0000-0002-5728-9269/work/86892017
- Scopus: 85097275062
Abstract
The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.
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