Counting Small Induced Subgraphs: Scorpions Are Easy but Not Trivial

In the parameterized problem #IndSub(Φ) for fixed graph properties Φ, given as input a graph G and an integer k, the task is to compute the number of induced k-vertex subgraphs satisfying Φ. Dörfler et al. [Algorithmica 2022] and Roth et al. [SICOMP 2024] conjectured that #IndSub(Φ) is #W[1]-hard for all non-meager properties Φ, i.e., properties that are nontrivial for infinitely many k. This conjecture has been confirmed for several restricted types of properties, including all hereditary properties [STOC 2022] and all edge-monotone properties [STOC 2024].
We refute this conjecture by showing that induced k-vertex graphs that are scorpions can be counted in time O(n⁴) for all k. Scorpions were introduced more than 50 years ago in the context of the evasiveness conjecture. A simple variant of this construction results in graph properties that achieve arbitrary intermediate complexity assuming ETH.
Moreover, we formulate an updated conjecture on the complexity of #IndSub(Φ) that correctly captures the complexity status of scorpions and related constructions.