Calls to Action on Social Media: Potential for Censorship and Social Impact

Calls to action on social media are known to be effective means of mobilization in social movements, and a frequent target of censorship. We investigate the possibility of their automatic detection and their potential for predicting real-world protest events, on historical data of Bolotnaya protests in Russia (2011-2013). We find that political calls to action can be annotated and detected with relatively high accuracy, and that in our sample their volume has a moderate positive correlation with rally attendance.